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Economic forecasts January 2023
Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %) |
Inflation (period average, in %) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||
| Euro area | Euro area | 3.3 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 |
| Germany | 1.8 | -0.1 | 1.4 | 8.6 | 6.3 | 3.7 | |
| France | 2.5 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 5.9 | 5.1 | 2.1 | |
| Italy | 3.8 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | |
| Spain | 4.7 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 3.2 | |
| Netherlands | 4.2 | 0.5 | 1.4 | 11.6 | 4.0 | 3.6 | |
| Belgium | 3.1 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 10.3 | 5.2 | 2.9 | |
| Ireland | 12.1 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.5 | |
| Slovakia | 1.5 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 12.2 | 10.0 | 9.2 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 2.5 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 14.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 |
| Hungary | 4.9 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 14.6 | 17.5 | 4.5 | |
| Bulgaria | 3.5 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 3.5 | |
| Poland | 4.8 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 13.2 | 10.8 | 3.5 | |
| Romania | 5.6 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 4.2 | -1.0 | 0.6 | 9.0 | 7.2 | 3.1 |
| Sweden | 2.8 | -0.6 | 1.5 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | |
| Norway | 3.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.1 | |
| Switzerland | 2.0 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | |
| Emerging markets |
China | 3.0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| India* | 7.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | |
| South Africa | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 4.9 | |
| Russia | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | ||||||
| Turkey | 5.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 72.3 | 40.5 | 25.0 | |
| Brazil | 3.1 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 4.1 | |
| Other advanced economies | United States | 2.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Japan | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | |
| Australia | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.7 | |
| New Zealand | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | |
| Canada | 3.5 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 2.2 | |
| * fiscal year from April-March | 13/01/2023 | ||||||
Policy rates (end of period, in %) |
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| 13/1/2023 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Euro area (refi rate) | 2.50 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Euro area (depo rate) | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| Hungary (BUBOR 3M) | 16.04 | 15.30 | 13.50 | 11.50 | 8.50 | |
| Bulgaria | - | |||||
| Poland | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | |
| Romania | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.25 | 7.25 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 3.50 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 |
| Sweden | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Norway | 2.75 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | |
| Switzerland | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Emerging markets | China | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 |
| India | 6.25 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | |
| South Africa | 7.00 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | |
| Russia | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | |||||
| Turkey | 9.00 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 30.00 | 30.00 | |
| Brazil | 13.75 | 13.50 | 13.25 | 13.00 | 12.50 | |
| Other advanced economies |
United States (mid-target range) | 4.38 | 5.13 | 5.38 | 5.38 | 5.38 |
| Japan | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | |
| Australia | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| New Zealand | 4.25 | 4.75 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.25 | |
| Canada | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %) |
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| 13/1/2023 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Germany | 2.16 | 3.10 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 |
| France | 2.63 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 3.95 | 4.00 | |
| Italy | 4.00 | 5.60 | 6.00 | 6.25 | 6.50 | |
| Spain | 3.18 | 4.25 | 4.40 | 4.45 | 4.45 | |
| Netherlands | 2.47 | 3.50 | 3.65 | 3.70 | 3.70 | |
| Belgium | 2.71 | 3.75 | 3.90 | 3.95 | 4.00 | |
| Ireland | 2.59 | 3.80 | 4.00 | 4.05 | 4.10 | |
| Slovakia | 3.16 | 4.42 | 4.60 | 4.62 | 4.65 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 4.35 | 4.56 | 4.40 | 4.59 | 4.53 |
| Hungary | 7.30 | 8.10 | 7.50 | 7.00 | 6.50 | |
| Bulgaria | 5.80 | 5.20 | 5.35 | 5.35 | 5.35 | |
| Poland | 6.02 | 6.50 | 6.40 | 5.90 | 5.20 | |
| Romania | 7.57 | 9.00 | 9.10 | 9.20 | 9.30 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 3.37 | 4.30 | 4.45 | 4.45 | 4.45 |
| Sweden | 1.91 | 2.90 | 3.05 | 3.05 | 3.05 | |
| Norway | 2.93 | 4.00 | 4.15 | 4.15 | 4.15 | |
| Switzerland | 1.13 | 2.15 | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.30 | |
| Emerging markets |
China | 2.93 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| India | 7.30 | 8.35 | 8.60 | 8.60 | 8.60 | |
| South Africa | 9.76 | 10.80 | 11.05 | 11.05 | 11.05 | |
| Russia | 10.39 | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | ||||
| Turkey | 10.15 | 10.00 | 12.00 | 20.00 | 18.00 | |
| Brazil | 12.44 | 13.50 | 13.75 | 13.75 | 13.75 | |
| Other advanced economies | United States | 3.47 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Japan | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Australia | 3.59 | 4.55 | 4.80 | 4.80 | 4.80 | |
| New Zealand | 4.08 | 5.10 | 5.35 | 5.35 | 5.35 | |
| Canada | 2.89 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | |
Exchange rates (end of period) |
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| 13/1/2023 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | |
| USD per EUR | 1.08 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.05 | 1.07 |
| CZK per EUR | 23.99 | 24.10 | 24.10 | 24.50 | 24.50 |
| HUF per EUR | 395.88 | 410.00 | 380.00 | 385.00 | 390.00 |
| PLN per EUR | 4.69 | 4.73 | 4.70 | 4.65 | 4.63 |
| BGN per EUR | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| RON per EUR | 4.94 | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.95 |
| GBP per EUR | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.92 | 0.94 |
| SEK per EUR | 11.26 | 11.40 | 11.40 | 11.00 | 10.75 |
| NOK per EUR | 10.68 | 10.85 | 10.85 | 10.50 | 10.00 |
| CHF per EUR | 1.00 | 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.03 | 1.03 |
| BRL per USD | 5.09 | 5.25 | 5.25 | 5.15 | 5.15 |
| INR per USD | 81.26 | 81.50 | 81.50 | 81.20 | 81.00 |
| ZAR per USD | 16.82 | 17.70 | 17.70 | 17.50 | 17.25 |
| RUB per USD | 69.27 | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | |||
| TRY per USD | 18.79 | 20.00 | 22.00 | 20.00 | 18.00 |
| RMB per USD | 6.70 | 7.10 | 7.10 | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| JPY per USD | 127.72 | 135.00 | 133.00 | 130.00 | 125.00 |
| USD per AUD | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.70 |
| USD per NZD | 0.64 | 0.62 | 0.62 | 0.64 | 0.66 |
| CAD per USD | 1.34 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.33 | 1.30 |
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