Perspectives world

		Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)			Inflation (period average, in %)
		2024	2025	2026	2024	2025	2026
Euro area	Euro area	0.8	0.9	0.9	2.4	2.1	1.9
	Germany	-0.2	0.0	0.8	2.5	2.2	2.1
	France	1.1	0.6	0.9	2.3	1.4	1.7
	Italy	0.5	0.4	0.4	1.2	1.3	1.5
	Spain	3.2	2.3	1.9	2.9	1.9	1.7
	Netherlands	1.0	1.1	0.8	3.2	3.0	2.8
	Belgium	1.0	0.7	0.8	4.3	2.9	1.8
	Ireland	1.2	4.0	4.0	1.4	2.2	2.1
	Slovakia	2.1	1.5	1.9	3.2	4.0	3.1
Central and Eastern Europe	Czech Republic	1.0	1.7	1.5	2.7	2.4	2.2
	Hungary	0.5	1.0	3.5	3.7	4.5	4.0
	Bulgaria	2.7	2.4	2.6	2.6	2.6	2.5
	Poland	2.9	3.4	3.5	3.6	3.9	3.0
	Romania	0.8	1.9	2.6	5.8	4.8	3.7
Rest of Europe	United Kingdom	1.1	0.7	1.1	2.3	3.1	2.4
	Sweden	0.9	1.9	2.4	2.0	1.1	1.8
	Norway	0.6	1.2	1.7	2.9	2.9	2.2
	Switzerland	1.3	1.1	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.7
Emerging markets	China	5.0	4.2	4.1	0.2	0.0	1.2
	India*	6.1	6.2	6.3	4.6	3.9	4.4
	South Africa	0.6	1.4	1.8	4.4	3.6	4.6
	Russia	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
	Turkey	3.2	2.9	3.4	58.5	33.8	22.3
	Brazil	3.4	1.8	2.1	4.4	5.1	4.3
Other advanced economies	United States	2.8	1.1	1.2	3.0	3.0	2.8
	Japan	0.1	1.0	0.7	2.7	2.9	1.8
	Australia	1.0	2.0	2.4	3.2	2.6	2.7
	New Zealand	-0.1	1.2	2.5	2.9	2.2	2.1
	Canada	1.5	1.0	0.8	2.3	2.4	2.1
* fiscal year from April-March						13/5/2025

Policy rates (end of period, in %)
		13/5/2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026
Euro area	Euro area (refi rate)	2.40	2.15	1.90	1.90	1.90
Euro area	Euro area (depo rate)	2.25	2.00	1.75	1.75	1.75
Central and Eastern Europe	Czech Republic	3.50	3.50	3.25	3.25	3.00
	Hungary (base rate)	6.50	6.50	6.25	6.00	5.75
	Bulgaria	-
	Poland	5.25	5.25	4.75	4.25	3.75
	Romania	6.50	6.50	6.25	6.00	6.00
Rest of Europe	United Kingdom	4.25	4.25	4.00	3.75	3.75
	Sweden	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25	2.25
	Norway	4.50	4.50	4.25	4.00	4.00
	Switzerland	0.25	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Emerging markets	China (7d rev.repo)	1.40	1.40	1.30	1.20	1.10
	India	6.00	5.75	5.50	5.50	5.50
	South Africa	7.50	7.50	7.50	7.25	7.00
	Russia	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
	Turkey	46.00	44.00	39.50	35.00	32.00
	Brazil	14.75	14.75	15.00	15.00	15.25
Other advanced economies	United States (mid-target range)	4.375	4.375	4.125	3.625	3.375
	Japan	0.50	0.50	0.75	0.75	0.75
	Australia	4.10	3.85	3.60	3.60	3.60
	New Zealand	3.50	3.25	3.00	3.00	3.00
	Canada	2.75	2.75	2.50	2.50	2.50

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)
		13/5/2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026
Euro area	Germany	2.67	2.60	2.60	2.60	2.65
	France	3.35	3.35	3.34	3.33	3.37
	Italy	3.70	3.70	3.68	3.66	3.69
	Spain	3.29	3.30	3.29	3.28	3.32
	Netherlands	2.90	2.80	2.80	2.80	2.85
	Belgium	3.22	3.20	3.19	3.18	3.22
	Ireland	2.98	2.90	2.90	2.90	2.95
	Slovakia	3.55	3.40	3.40	3.40	3.45
Central and Eastern Europe	Czech Republic	4.14	4.00	4.00	4.00	4.10
	Hungary	7.00	6.80	6.45	6.20	6.20
	Bulgaria* (EUR)	3.67	3.60	3.55	3.50	3.53
	Poland	5.48	5.40	5.30	4.90	4.70
	Romania	8.40	8.35	8.35	8.35	8.40
Rest of Europe	United Kingdom	4.67	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.65
	Sweden	2.44	2.40	2.40	2.40	2.45
	Norway	4.00	3.95	3.95	3.95	4.00
	Switzerland	0.39	0.30	0.30	0.30	0.35
Emerging markets	China	1.66	1.51	1.51	1.56	1.56
	India	6.30	6.14	6.14	6.19	6.19
	South Africa	10.49	10.34	10.34	10.39	10.39
	Russia	15.13	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
	Turkey	31.90	32.00	30.00	28.00	26.00
	Brazil	13.86	13.71	13.71	13.76	13.76
Other advanced economies	United States	4.46	4.30	4.30	4.35	4.35
	Japan	1.45	1.50	1.50	1.50	1.50
	Australia	4.44	4.30	4.30	4.35	4.35
	New Zealand	4.65	4.45	4.45	4.50	4.50
	Canada	3.21	3.10	3.10	3.15	3.15
*Caution: very illiquid market

Exchange rates (end of period)
	13/5/2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q4 2025	Q1 2026
USD per EUR	1.11	1.14	1.17	1.20	1.20
CZK per EUR	24.97	25.20	25.10	25.10	25.00
HUF per EUR	404.98	400.00	398.00	408.00	412.00
PLN per EUR	4.25	4.25	4.20	4.20	4.20
BGN per EUR	1.96	1.96	1.96	1.96	1.96
RON per EUR	5.10	4.99	5.02	5.05	5.07
GBP per EUR	0.84	0.85	0.86	0.87	0.87
SEK per EUR	10.87	10.80	10.75	10.75	10.75
NOK per EUR	11.57	11.50	11.50	11.50	11.50
CHF per EUR	0.94	0.94	0.94	0.94	0.94
BRL per USD	5.67	5.60	5.53	5.46	5.46
INR per USD	85.04	83.82	82.75	81.71	81.71
ZAR per USD	18.24	17.99	17.76	17.54	17.54
RUB per USD	80.65	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
TRY per USD	38.80	39.45	41.03	42.32	43.45
RMB per USD	7.20	7.22	7.25	7.27	7.30
JPY per USD	147.86	144.38	140.68	137.16	137.16
USD per AUD	0.64	0.64	0.64	0.65	0.66
USD per NZD	0.59	0.59	0.59	0.60	0.61
CAD per USD	1.40	1.39	1.38	1.37	1.36

World