Search

World

Something went wrong. The page is temporarily unavailable.

World

Most recent Economic Perspectives publication

Economic Perspectives January 2026

Economic forecasts January 2026


 

Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)

Inflation (period average, in %)
    2025 2026 2027 2025 2026 2027
Euro area Euro area 1.4 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.7 1.9
Germany 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.2
France 0.8 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.4
Italy 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.7 1.2 1.7
Spain 2.8 2.1 1.9 2.7 1.9 2.0
Netherlands 1.7 1.0 1.3 3.0 2.2 2.4
Belgium 1.0 1.1 1.3 3.0 1.9 2.0
Ireland 12.8 3.2 3.4 2.1 2.3 1.8
Slovakia 0.7 0.9 1.8 4.1 4.2 3.0
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.4 1.6 2.3
Hungary 0.3 2.0 3.0 4.4 3.3 3.5
Bulgaria 3.1 2.7 2.8 3.5 3.4 2.6
Poland 3.3 3.0 3.2 3.3 2.6 2.5
Romania 1.0 1.4 1.4 7.3 6.4 5.5
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 1.4 1.0 1.4 3.4 2.5 2.1
Sweden 1.4 2.5 2.1 0.7 0.9 2.1
Norway 1.8 1.6 1.6 2.9 2.3 2.2
Switzerland 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.2 0.4 0.8
Emerging 
markets		 China 5.0 4.6 4.2 -0.1 0.8 1.1
India* 7.4 6.4 6.5 2.0 4.2 4.3
South Africa 1.3 1.5 1.5 3.2 3.6 3.9
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 3.7 3.5 3.8 34.9 25.1 16.0
Brazil 2.3 1.5 2.0 5.0 4.2 5.1
Other advanced economies United States 2.2 2.3 1.9 2.7 2.6 2.4
Japan  1.2 0.7 0.8 3.1 1.8 1.9
Australia 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.1 2.6
New Zealand 0.3 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.1 2.0
Canada 1.5 1.2 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.0
* fiscal year from April-March         20/1/2026

Policy rates (end of period, in %)
    20/1/2026 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026
Euro area Euro area (refi rate) 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.15
Euro area (depo rate) 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Hungary (base rate) 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.00
Bulgaria - - - - -
Poland 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50
Romania 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Sweden 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
Norway 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.75
Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Emerging markets China (7d rev.repo) 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.10
India 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25
South Africa 6.75 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.10
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 38.00 34.50 31.75 28.75 27.00
Brazil 15.00 14.50 13.50 12.50 12.00
Other advanced
economies		 United States (mid-target range) 3.625 3.375 3.125 3.125 3.125
Japan  0.75 0.75 1.00 1.00 1.00
Australia 3.60 3.60 3.60 3.85 3.85
New Zealand 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.50
Canada 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)
    20/1/2026 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026
Euro area  Germany 2.87 2.85 2.88 2.88 2.90
France 3.55 3.55 3.58 3.58 3.60
Italy 3.48 3.55 3.58 3.58 3.60
Spain 3.27 3.30 3.33 3.33 3.35
Netherlands 2.96 3.00 3.03 3.03 3.05
Belgium 3.33 3.35 3.38 3.38 3.40
Ireland 2.98 3.05 3.08 3.08 3.10
Slovakia 3.42 3.55 3.58 3.58 3.60
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 4.49 4.40 4.30 4.30 4.30
Hungary 6.84 6.75 6.60 6.50 6.30
Bulgaria* (EUR) 3.59 3.50 3.53 3.53 3.55
Poland 5.19 5.10 5.10 4.90 4.80
Romania 6.80 6.75 6.78 6.78 6.80
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 4.46 4.40 4.43 4.43 4.45
Sweden 2.79 2.80 2.83 2.83 2.85
Norway 4.25 4.20 4.23 4.23 4.25
Switzerland 0.26 0.25 0.28 0.28 0.30
Emerging
markets		 China 1.80 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
India 6.68 6.67 6.72 6.82 6.97
South Africa 8.45 1.85 1.85 1.85 1.85
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 27.87 28.00 27.00 26.00 24.00
Brazil 13.86 13.83 13.88 13.98 14.13
Other advanced economies United States 4.28 4.20 4.25 4.35 4.50
Japan  2.35 2.25 2.35 2.45 2.50
Australia 4.80 4.75 4.80 4.90 5.05
New Zealand 4.55 4.50 4.55 4.65 4.80
Canada 3.39 3.40 3.45 3.55 3.70
*Caution: very illiquid market

Exchange rates (end of period)
  20/1/2026 Q1 2026 Q2 2026 Q3 2026 Q4 2026
USD per EUR 1.17 1.18 1.20 1.21 1.22
CZK per EUR 24.31 24.00 23.90 23.90 23.80
HUF per EUR 385.48 385.00 389.00 392.00 395.00
PLN per EUR 4.23 4.25 4.25 4.20 4.20
RON per EUR 5.09 5.11 5.12 5.14 5.15
GBP per EUR 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.90
SEK per EUR 10.74 10.70 10.67 10.64 10.60
NOK per EUR 11.74 11.70 11.65 11.60 11.50
CHF per EUR 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93
BRL per USD 5.37 5.33 5.28 5.26 5.24
INR per USD 90.97 89.96 89.21 88.84 88.48
ZAR per USD 16.45 6.96 6.95 6.94 6.94
RUB per USD Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
TRY per USD 43.28 45.00 47.32 49.16 51.00
RMB per USD 6.96 6.96 6.95 6.94 6.94
JPY per USD 157.59 160.00 157.00 153.00 150.00
USD per AUD 0.67 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.70
USD per NZD 0.58 0.58 0.58 0.59 0.60
CAD per USD 1.38 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.35

Other forecasts and updates

Belgium

Central and Eastern Europe