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World

Most recent Economic Perspectives publication

Economic Perspectives January 2023

Economic forecasts January 2023


 

Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)

Inflation (period average, in %)

    2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024
Euro area Euro area 3.3 0.4 1.5 8.4 5.4 3.0
Germany 1.8 -0.1 1.4 8.6 6.3 3.7
France 2.5 0.3 1.4 5.9 5.1 2.1
Italy 3.8 0.4 1.3 8.7 6.4 2.2
Spain 4.7 1.5 2.4 8.3 4.0 3.2
Netherlands 4.2 0.5 1.4 11.6 4.0 3.6
Belgium 3.1 0.2 1.3 10.3 5.2 2.9
Ireland 12.1 5.1 4.9 8.1 5.3 2.5
Slovakia 1.5 0.6 2.8 12.2 10.0 9.2
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 2.5 0.3 2.8 14.0 7.6 3.0
Hungary 4.9 0.3 3.6 14.6 17.5 4.5
Bulgaria 3.5 0.7 3.5 13.0 10.5 3.5
Poland 4.8 2.4 4.2 13.2 10.8 3.5
Romania 5.6 4.0 3.5 4.1 12.0 9.0
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 4.2 -1.0 0.6 9.0 7.2 3.1
Sweden 2.8 -0.6 1.5 8.0 6.3 2.0
Norway 3.5 1.1 1.6 5.8 4.6 2.1
Switzerland 2.0 0.5 1.7 2.8 2.2 1.2
Emerging 
markets
China 3.0 4.4 5.1 2.0 1.8 1.9
India* 7.7 5.1 4.8 6.5 4.5 4.2
South Africa 2.5 1.5 1.6 6.8 5.3 4.9
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 5.0 3.0 3.0 72.3 40.5 25.0
Brazil 3.1 0.9 1.7 9.0 4.5 4.1
Other advanced economies United States 2.1 0.9 1.1 8.0 3.5 2.0
Japan  1.2 1.2 1.1 2.4 1.9 1.2
Australia 4.0 2.0 2.0 6.4 4.5 2.7
New Zealand 2.2 1.8 1.6 6.5 3.5 2.4
Canada 3.5 0.4 1.6 6.8 3.7 2.2
* fiscal year from April-March         13/01/2023

Policy rates (end of period, in %)

    13/1/2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
Euro area Euro area (refi rate) 2.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00
Euro area (depo rate) 2.00 3.00 3.50 3.50 3.50
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 6.00
Hungary (BUBOR 3M) 16.04 15.30 13.50 11.50 8.50
Bulgaria -        
Poland 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
Romania 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.25 7.25
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 3.50 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.50
Sweden 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00
Norway 2.75 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
Switzerland 1.00 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Emerging markets China 2.75 2.75 2.65 2.65 2.65
India 6.25 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75
South Africa 7.00 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 9.00 9.00 9.00 30.00 30.00
Brazil 13.75 13.50 13.25 13.00 12.50
Other advanced
economies
United States (mid-target range) 4.38 5.13 5.38 5.38 5.38
Japan  -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
Australia 3.10 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
New Zealand 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.25 5.25
Canada 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)

    13/1/2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
Euro area  Germany 2.16 3.10 3.25 3.25 3.25
France 2.63 3.75 3.90 3.95 4.00
Italy 4.00 5.60 6.00 6.25 6.50
Spain 3.18 4.25 4.40 4.45 4.45
Netherlands 2.47 3.50 3.65 3.70 3.70
Belgium 2.71 3.75 3.90 3.95 4.00
Ireland 2.59 3.80 4.00 4.05 4.10
Slovakia 3.16 4.42 4.60 4.62 4.65
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 4.35 4.56 4.40 4.59 4.53
Hungary 7.30 8.10 7.50 7.00 6.50
Bulgaria 5.80 5.20 5.35 5.35 5.35
Poland 6.02 6.50 6.40 5.90 5.20
Romania 7.57 9.00 9.10 9.20 9.30
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 3.37 4.30 4.45 4.45 4.45
Sweden 1.91 2.90 3.05 3.05 3.05
Norway 2.93 4.00 4.15 4.15 4.15
Switzerland 1.13 2.15 2.30 2.30 2.30
Emerging
markets
China 2.93 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25
India 7.30 8.35 8.60 8.60 8.60
South Africa 9.76 10.80 11.05 11.05 11.05
Russia 10.39 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 10.15 10.00 12.00 20.00 18.00
Brazil 12.44 13.50 13.75 13.75 13.75
Other advanced economies United States 3.47 4.50 4.75 4.75 4.75
Japan  0.52 0.50 0.75 0.75 0.75
Australia 3.59 4.55 4.80 4.80 4.80
New Zealand 4.08 5.10 5.35 5.35 5.35
Canada 2.89 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25

Exchange rates (end of period)

  13/1/2023 Q1 2023 Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Q4 2023
USD per EUR 1.08 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.07
CZK per EUR 23.99 24.10 24.10 24.50 24.50
HUF per EUR 395.88 410.00 380.00 385.00 390.00
PLN per EUR 4.69 4.73 4.70 4.65 4.63
BGN per EUR 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
RON per EUR 4.94 4.95 4.95 4.95 4.95
GBP per EUR 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.94
SEK per EUR 11.26 11.40 11.40 11.00 10.75
NOK per EUR 10.68 10.85 10.85 10.50 10.00
CHF per EUR 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03
BRL per USD 5.09 5.25 5.25 5.15 5.15
INR per USD 81.26 81.50 81.50 81.20 81.00
ZAR per USD 16.82 17.70 17.70 17.50 17.25
RUB per USD 69.27 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
TRY per USD 18.79 20.00 22.00 20.00 18.00
RMB per USD 6.70 7.10 7.10 7.00 7.00
JPY per USD 127.72 135.00 133.00 130.00 125.00
USD per AUD 0.70 0.67 0.66 0.68 0.70
USD per NZD 0.64 0.62 0.62 0.64 0.66
CAD per USD 1.34 1.36 1.36 1.33 1.30

Other forecasts and updates

Belgium

Ireland

Central and Eastern Europe