World

Most recent Economic Perspectives publication

		Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)			Inflation (period average, in %)
		2025	2026	2027	2025	2026	2027
Euro area	Euro area	1.3	0.9	0.8	2.1	3.1	2.3
	Germany	0.3	1.0	0.7	2.2	3.0	2.5
	France	0.9	0.4	0.3	0.9	2.6	1.5
	Italy	0.7	0.8	0.4	1.6	3.2	1.8
	Spain	2.6	2.5	1.7	2.7	3.7	2.4
	Netherlands	1.6	1.5	1.1	3.0	2.8	2.1
	Belgium	0.9	0.7	0.8	3.0	3.7	2.6
	Ireland	8.0	-1.4	4.0	2.1	3.4	3.1
	Slovakia	0.8	0.7	1.2	4.2	4.1	3.6
Central and Eastern Europe	Czech Republic	2.7	1.9	2.2	2.3	1.9	3.3
	Hungary	0.6	1.8	2.4	4.4	2.2	3.3
	Bulgaria	3.2	2.6	2.4	3.5	5.0	3.8
	Poland	3.6	3.4	3.2	3.3	3.2	3.7
	Romania	0.8	-0.5	2.2	6.8	8.2	4.3
Rest of Europe	United Kingdom	1.2	1.2	1.1	3.3	3.1	2.8
	Sweden	1.6	2.4	2.3	2.6	0.7	2.2
	Norway	1.7	1.2	1.8	2.8	3.2	2.5
	Switzerland	1.6	1.7	1.4	0.1	0.6	0.7
Emerging markets	China	4.9	4.6	4.3	0.0	1.1	1.1
	India*	7.8	6.9	6.7	2.1	4.7	4.7
	South Africa	1.1	1.1	1.4	3.2	4.2	3.8
	Russia	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
	Turkey	3.7	2.8	3.7	34.9	31.2	23.9
	Brazil	2.3	2.0	1.8	5.0	4.5	4.3
Other advanced economies	United States	2.3	2.2	2.1	2.7	3.5	2.8
	Japan	1.2	0.8	0.8	3.2	1.9	2.0
	Australia	2.0	2.0	1.6	2.8	3.9	2.9
	New Zealand	0.7	1.7	2.4	2.8	3.6	2.3
	Canada	1.9	0.9	1.7	2.2	2.8	2.2
* fiscal year from April-March						20/10/2026

Policy rates (end of period, in %)
		20/10/2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027	Q3 2027
Euro area	Euro area (refi rate)	2.65	2.90	3.15	3.15	3.15
Euro area	Euro area (depo rate)	2.50	2.75	3.00	3.00	3.00
Central and Eastern Europe	Czech Republic	3.75	4.00	4.00	4.00	4.00
	Hungary (base rate)	5.50	5.50	5.25	5.00	4.75
	Poland	3.75	3.75	4.00	4.00	4.00
	Romania	6.50	6.75	6.75	6.75	6.75
Rest of Europe	United Kingdom	3.75	4.00	4.25	4.25	4.25
	Sweden	1.75	2.00	2.25	2.25	2.25
	Norway	4.50	4.75	4.75	4.75	4.75
	Switzerland	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Emerging markets	China (7d rev.repo)	0.00	1.40	1.30	1.20	1.20
	India	5.50	5.75	5.75	5.75	5.75
	South Africa	7.25	7.25	7.25	7.25	7.00
	Russia	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
	Turkey	37.00	35.00	33.50	32.00	30.50
	Brazil	13.75	13.75	13.75	13.25	13.25
Other advanced economies	United States (mid-target range)	3.875	4.125	4.125	4.125	4.125
	Japan	1.25	1.50	1.50	1.75	1.75
	Australia	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60	4.60
	New Zealand	2.75	3.00	3.25	3.25	3.25
	Canada	2.25	2.50	2.50	2.50	2.50

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)
		20/10/2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027	Q3 2027
Euro area	Germany	3.44	3.50	3.50	3.45	3.45
	France	4.97	5.00	5.10	4.95	4.90
	Italy	4.61	4.65	4.75	4.60	4.57
	Spain	4.08	4.20	4.20	4.15	4.10
	Netherlands	3.54	3.70	3.70	3.65	3.60
	Belgium	4.39	4.40	4.50	4.35	4.30
	Ireland	3.57	3.70	3.70	3.65	3.65
	Slovakia	4.40	4.50	4.50	4.45	4.40
Central and Eastern Europe	Czech Republic	5.34	5.30	5.20	5.00	4.70
	Hungary	5.50	5.40	5.20	5.10	5.05
	Bulgaria*	4.53	4.70	4.70	4.65	4.60
	Poland	6.39	6.30	6.00	5.60	5.20
	Romania	7.19	7.30	7.30	7.25	7.25
Rest of Europe	United Kingdom	5.45	5.50	5.50	5.45	5.45
	Sweden	3.20	3.25	3.25	3.20	3.20
	Norway	4.59	4.65	4.65	4.60	4.60
	Switzerland	0.52	0.60	0.60	0.55	0.55
Emerging markets	China	1.64	1.70	1.70	1.65	1.65
	India	7.39	7.40	7.40	7.30	7.30
	South Africa	8.94	8.90	8.90	8.80	8.80
	Russia	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
	Turkey	32.96	32.50	30.00	29.00	27.00
	Brazil	13.10	12.85	12.85	12.75	12.75
Other advanced economies	United States	5.13	5.25	5.25	5.15	5.15
	Japan	2.90	3.00	3.00	3.00	3.00
	Australia	5.25	5.35	5.35	5.25	5.25
	New Zealand	5.08	5.15	5.15	5.05	5.05
	Canada	3.96	3.95	3.95	3.85	3.85
*Caution: very illiquid market

Exchange rates (end of period)
	20/10/2026	Q4 2026	Q1 2027	Q2 2027	Q3 2027
USD per EUR	1.12	1.11	1.10	1.12	1.13
CZK per EUR	24.33	24.30	24.30	24.20	24.10
HUF per EUR	364.53	363.00	362.00	365.00	363.00
PLN per EUR	4.37	4.40	4.32	4.28	4.25
RON per EUR	5.33	5.33	5.34	5.35	5.36
GBP per EUR	0.84	0.90	0.90	0.90	0.90
SEK per EUR	11.12	11.15	11.00	10.90	10.80
NOK per EUR	10.52	10.65	10.65	10.65	10.65
CHF per EUR	0.92	0.94	0.94	0.94	0.94
BRL per USD	5.03	5.05	5.07	5.03	5.00
INR per USD	94.91	95.51	95.95	95.09	94.67
ZAR per USD	16.48	16.56	16.63	16.48	16.41
RUB per USD	Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
TRY per USD	49.57	51.27	53.57	55.75	57.95
RMB per USD	6.68	6.68	6.67	6.65	6.65
JPY per USD	158.19	156.00	155.00	153.00	151.00
USD per AUD	0.70	0.71	0.71	0.72	0.72
USD per NZD	0.57	0.58	0.59	0.60	0.61
CAD per USD	1.40	1.40	1.39	1.39	1.38