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Most recent Economic Perspectives publication

Economic Perspectives November 2023

Economic forecasts November 2023


 

Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)

Inflation (period average, in %)
    2022 2023 2024 2022 2023 2024
Euro area Euro area 3.4 0.5 0.5 8.4 5.5 2.6
Germany 1.9 -0.1 0.3 8.7 6.2 2.7
France 2.5 0.9 0.8 5.9 5.8 2.1
Italy 3.9 0.7 0.3 8.8 6.3 2.0
Spain 5.8 2.3 1.4 8.3 3.4 3.3
Netherlands 4.4 0.5 0.6 11.6 4.3 3.4
Belgium 3.0 1.3 0.8 10.3 2.3 3.6
Ireland 9.4 5.6 5.3 8.1 4.9 3.4
Slovakia 1.8 1.2 2.2 12.1 10.8 5.9
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 2.4 -0.4 1.8 14.8 11.9 2.6
Hungary 4.6 -0.5 3.0 15.3 17.4 5.7
Bulgaria 4.2 1.9 2.3 13.0 9.0 5.0
Poland 5.6 0.2 3.2 13.2 11.2 5.5
Romania 4.6 2.5 3.2 12.0 10.0 7.0
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 4.3 0.4 0.3 9.3 7.4 3.1
Sweden 2.9 -0.7 0.4 8.1 8.4 3.4
Norway 3.7 1.2 1.1 6.2 5.5 3.0
Switzerland 2.7 0.8 1.2 2.8 2.2 1.6
Emerging 
markets		 China 3.0 5.1 4.1 2.0 0.4 1.5
India* 7.2 6.2 5.6 6.7 5.2 4.4
South Africa 1.9 0.8 1.2 7.0 6.0 5.2
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 5.5 3.5 2.1 72.3 53.0 46.9
Brazil 2.9 3.1 1.2 9.3 4.7 4.1
Other advanced economies United States 1.9 2.4 1.0 8.0 4.1 2.6
Japan  1.0 1.9 0.9 2.5 3.2 2.2
Australia 3.7 1.8 1.4 6.6 5.6 3.2
New Zealand 2.3 1.1 0.9 7.2 5.7 3.4
Canada 3.4 1.1 0.6 7.0 3.9 2.6
* fiscal year from April-March         10/11/2023

Policy rates (end of period, in %)
    10/11/2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024
Euro area Euro area (refi rate) 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.25
Euro area (depo rate) 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.75
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 7.00 6.75 5.75 5.00 4.50
Hungary (BUBOR 3M) 11.24 10.20 8.50 7.25 6.50
Bulgaria -        
Poland 5.75 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.25
Romania 7.00 7.00 7.00 6.75 6.75
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25
Sweden 4.00 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25
Norway 4.25 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50
Switzerland 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.75
Emerging markets China 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50
India 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.00
South Africa 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.00 7.75
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 35.00 35.00 37.50 40.00 40.00
Brazil 12.25 11.75 10.75 10.00 9.50
Other advanced
economies		 United States (mid-target range) 5.375 5.375 5.375 5.375 5.125
Japan  -0.10 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
Australia 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
New Zealand 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50
Canada 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.75

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)
    10/11/2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024
Euro area  Germany 2.70 2.75 2.70 2.65 2.60
France 3.29 3.40 3.40 3.35 3.30
Italy 4.57 4.70 4.70 4.65 4.60
Spain 3.75 3.85 3.90 3.85 3.80
Netherlands 3.04 3.15 3.10 3.05 3.00
Belgium 3.32 3.45 3.50 3.45 3.40
Ireland 3.12 3.20 3.20 3.15 3.10
Slovakia 3.96 4.05 4.20 4.15 4.10
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 4.54 4.40 4.33 4.25 4.10
Hungary 7.21 6.90 6.50 6.40 6.20
Bulgaria* 4.50 4.75 4.80 4.75 4.70
Poland 5.63 5.50 5.20 5.00 4.70
Romania 6.95 7.50 7.70 7.90 8.00
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 4.31 4.40 4.35 4.30 4.25
Sweden 2.88 2.95 2.90 2.85 2.80
Norway 3.89 3.95 3.90 3.85 3.80
Switzerland 1.14 1.25 1.20 1.15 1.10
Emerging
markets		 China 2.66 2.70 2.70 2.60 2.55
India 7.30 7.20 7.10 7.10 7.05
South Africa 10.40 10.40 10.30 10.20 10.15
Russia 11.85 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 26.99 27.50 27.50 30.00 30.00
Brazil 11.47 11.40 11.30 10.90 10.85
Other advanced economies United States 4.59 4.60 4.50 4.40 4.35
Japan  0.86 0.85 1.00 1.25 1.25
Australia 4.63 4.60 4.50 4.40 4.35
New Zealand 5.17 5.15 5.05 4.95 4.90
Canada 3.81 3.80 3.70 3.60 3.55
*Caution: very illiquid market

Exchange rates (end of period)
  10/11/2023 Q4 2023 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024
USD per EUR 1.07 1.07 1.07 1.09 1.13
CZK per EUR 24.52 24.80 24.90 24.80 24.70
HUF per EUR 377 385 382 385 387
PLN per EUR 4.42 4.40 4.30 4.28 4.25
BGN per EUR 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
RON per EUR 4.97 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.98
GBP per EUR 0.87 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92
SEK per EUR 11.64 11.60 11.55 11.50 11.50
NOK per EUR 11.89 11.50 11.20 11.10 11.00
CHF per EUR 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 1.00
BRL per USD 4.92 5.04 5.04 5.00 4.91
INR per USD 83.26 85.39 85.39 84.60 83.10
ZAR per USD 18.76 19.06 19.06 18.89 18.55
RUB per USD 92.03 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
TRY per USD 28.56 29.00 31.00 33.00 35.00
RMB per USD 7.29 7.30 7.25 7.20 7.15
JPY per USD 151.42 151.00 145.00 140.00 135.00
USD per AUD 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.66 0.68
USD per NZD 0.59 0.59 0.61 0.63 0.64
CAD per USD 1.38 1.37 1.36 1.34 1.32

Other forecasts and updates

Belgium

Ireland

Central and Eastern Europe