World

World

Most recent Economic Perspectives publication

Economic Perspectives March 2024

Economic forecasts March 2024


 

Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)

Inflation (period average, in %)

    2023 2024 2025 2023 2024 2025
Euro area Euro area 0.5 0.4 1.3 5.4 2.4 2.0
Germany -0.1 0.1 1.3 6.1 2.8 2.5
France 0.9 0.7 1.2 5.7 2.8 1.8
Italy 1.0 0.6 0.9 5.9 2.0 1.8
Spain 2.5 1.8 2.0 3.4 3.0 2.0
Netherlands 0.1 0.6 1.2 4.1 3.0 2.2
Belgium 1.5 1.1 1.1 2.3 3.8 2.1
Ireland -3.2 2.5 4.5 5.2 2.3 2.1
Slovakia 1.1 2.0 3.2 11.0 3.5 4.5
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic -0.4 1.4 3.1 12.1 2.3 2.5
Hungary -0.7 2.3 3.6 17.0 4.3 4.0
Bulgaria 1.9 2.3 3.0 8.6 4.2 3.0
Poland 0.1 3.0 3.8 10.9 4.9 3.7
Romania 2.1 3.2 3.0 9.7 6.5 5.0
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 0.1 0.3 1.1 7.1 2.6 2.1
Sweden 0.0 0.1 2.1 5.9 3.0 1.8
Norway 1.1 0.6 1.5 5.7 3.4 2.4
Switzerland 0.8 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.6 1.2
Emerging 
markets
China 5.2 4.7 4.2 0.3 0.7 2.0
India* 7.7 6.3 6.3 5.4 4.8 4.6
South Africa 0.6 1.0 1.6 6.1 4.8 4.7
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 4.5 2.2 3.2 53.9 52.6 27.2
Brazil 2.9 1.7 1.8 4.6 4.0 3.8
Other advanced economies United States 2.5 2.4 2.0 4.1 3.2 2.5
Japan  1.9 0.7 1.0 3.3 2.3 1.6
Australia 2.1 1.4 2.2 5.6 3.5 2.9
New Zealand 0.6 1.0 2.2 5.7 3.3 2.2
Canada 1.1 0.6 1.9 3.6 2.6 2.1
* fiscal year from April-March         21/3/2024

Policy rates (end of period, in %)

    21/3/2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024
Euro area Euro area (refi rate) 4.50 4.50 4.25 3.40 3.15
Euro area (depo rate) 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.25 3.00
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 5.75 5.75 4.75 4.00 3.50
Hungary (base rate) 9.00 8.25 6.50 6.25 6.25
Bulgaria -        
Poland 5.75 5.75 5.50 5.50 5.50
Romania 7.00 7.00 6.75 6.75 6.50
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.00 4.50
Sweden 4.00 4.00 3.75 3.25 3.00
Norway 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.25 3.75
Switzerland 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.25 1.00
Emerging markets China 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.40 2.30
India 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.00
South Africa 8.25 8.25 8.00 7.50 7.50
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 50.00 50.00 50.00 50.00 45.00
Brazil 10.75 10.75 9.75 9.50 9.50
Other advanced
economies
United States (mid-target range) 5.38 5.38 5.13 4.88 4.63
Japan  0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Australia 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.10 3.85
New Zealand 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.25 5.00
Canada 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.75 4.25

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)

    21/3/2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024
Euro area  Germany 2.40 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
France 2.84 2.80 2.87 2.93 3.00
Italy 3.66 3.72 3.91 4.11 4.30
Spain 3.20 3.19 3.29 3.40 3.50
Netherlands 2.64 2.59 2.63 2.67 2.70
Belgium 2.94 2.89 2.96 3.03 3.10
Ireland 2.77 2.71 2.74 2.77 2.80
Slovakia 3.65 3.61 3.68 3.74 3.80
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 3.89 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.90
Hungary 6.66 6.40 6.20 6.00 5.80
Bulgaria* 4.00 3.86 3.88 3.89 3.90
Poland 5.45 5.20 5.00 4.60 4.30
Romania 6.65 7.00 7.30 7.60 8.00
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 3.96 3.95 3.95 3.95 3.95
Sweden 2.44 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.30
Norway 3.70 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Switzerland 0.71 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65
Emerging
markets
China 2.29 2.35 2.35 2.35 2.40
India 7.05 7.00 6.95 6.90 6.85
South Africa 10.43 10.15 10.10 10.05 10.00
Russia 13.95 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 24.92 25.00 25.00 25.00 22.50
Brazil 10.90 10.65 10.60 10.55 10.50
Other advanced economies United States 4.23 4.15 4.10 4.05 4.00
Japan  0.74 0.75 0.75 0.75 1.00
Australia 4.08 4.05 4.00 3.95 3.90
New Zealand 4.62 4.55 4.50 4.45 4.40
Canada 3.44 3.40 3.35 3.30 3.25
*Caution: very illiquid market

Exchange rates (end of period)

  21/3/2024 Q1 2024 Q2 2024 Q3 2024 Q4 2024
USD per EUR 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.09 1.10
CZK per EUR 25.24 25.20 24.90 24.70 24.60
HUF per EUR 393.87 390.00 388.00 395.00 398.00
PLN per EUR 4.31 4.30 4.37 4.32 4.29
BGN per EUR 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
RON per EUR 4.97 5.00 5.05 5.10 5.20
GBP per EUR 0.86 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88
SEK per EUR 11.38 11.23 11.25 11.20 11.15
NOK per EUR 11.54 11.45 11.30 11.15 11.10
CHF per EUR 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00
BRL per USD 4.97 4.98 4.98 4.98 4.95
INR per USD 83.09 82.90 82.90 82.90 82.52
ZAR per USD 18.75 18.76 18.76 18.76 18.68
RUB per USD 91.72 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
TRY per USD 31.94 32.00 33.33 34.49 35.95
RMB per USD 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.15
JPY per USD 151.10 145.00 142.00 140.00 137.00
USD per AUD 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.68
USD per NZD 0.61 0.62 0.63 0.64 0.65
CAD per USD 1.35 1.35 1.33 1.31 1.30

Other forecasts and updates

Belgium

Ireland

Central and Eastern Europe