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World

Most recent Economic Perspectives publication

Economic Perspectives May 2022

Economic forecasts May 2022


 

Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)

Inflation (period average, in %)

    2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023
Euro area Euro area 5.4 2.1 1.4 2.6 7.3 4.0
Germany 2.9 1.3 1.1 3.2 7.4 4.2
France 7.0 2.3 1.3 2.1 6.0 3.8
Italy 6.6 2.2 1.2 1.9 7.2 3.9
Spain 5.1 4.5 3.4 3.0 9.2 4.4
Netherlands 5.0 2.8 1.1 2.8 10.5 3.8
Belgium 6.2 2.0 1.1 3.2 8.3 3.0
Ireland 13.5 5.0 3.5 2.4 7.0 4.0
Slovakia 3.0 2.5 3.4 2.8 8.5 7.6
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 3.3 1.8 3.1 3.3 10.1 4.5
Hungary 7.1 4.8 2.6 5.2 9.0 4.8
Bulgaria 3.8 1.5 2.6 2.9 12.5 6.5
Poland 5.8 3.5 3.8 5.2 11.9 8.0
Romania 5.9 4.5 4.0 4.1 11.0 8.0
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 7.4 3.8 1.5 2.6 7.5 4.5
Sweden 4.6 3.0 2.1 2.7 4.8 2.5
Norway 4.2 3.8 2.0 3.9 3.4 2.1
Switzerland 3.7 2.6 1.8 0.6 2.0 0.9
Emerging 
markets
China 8.1 4.5 5.0 0.9 1.7 2.5
India* 8.8 7.1 5.6 5.5 6.3 4.3
South Africa 4.9 2.0 1.8 4.8 5.6 4.3
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 11.0 2.1 2.7 19.6 60.0 23.7
Brazil 4.6 0.8 1.4 8.7 10.1 5.1
Other advanced economies United States 5.7 2.2 1.7 4.7 6.7 2.4
Japan  1.7 2.1 1.8 0.1 1.6 1.0
Australia 4.7 4.2 2.8 2.8 4.2 2.8
New Zealand 5.0 3.1 2.7 3.9 6.2 2.8
Canada 4.6 3.9 2.8 3.6 5.2 2.5
* fiscal year from April-March         6/05/2022

Policy rates (end of period, in %)

    6/5/2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023
Euro area Euro area (refi rate) 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.75 1.25
Euro area (depo rate) -0.50 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00
Hungary (BUBOR 3M) 6.79 7.15 7.50 7.50 7.20
Bulgaria -        
Poland 5.25 6.00 7.00 7.00 6.50
Romania 3.00 2.50 3.00 3.25 3.25
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75
Sweden 0.25 0.50 1.00 1.25 1.50
Norway 0.75 1.00 1.50 1.75 2.00
Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75
Emerging markets China 2.85 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.75
India 4.40 4.90 5.15 5.40 5.65
South Africa 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.75 6.00
Russia 20.00 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00
Brazil 12.75 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50
Other advanced
economies
United States (mid-target range) 0.88 1.38 2.38 2.88 3.13
Japan  -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
Australia 0.35 0.75 1.75 2.75 3.00
New Zealand 1.50 2.25 3.00 3.25 4.00
Canada 1.00 1.50 2.50 3.00 3.25

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)

    6/5/2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023
Euro area  Germany 1.15 1.20 1.50 1.80 2.10
France 1.68 1.80 2.10 2.40 2.75
Italy 3.15 3.20 3.75 4.30 4.85
Spain 2.25 2.30 2.60 2.90 3.25
Netherlands 1.43 1.55 1.85 2.15 2.50
Belgium 1.73 1.80 2.10 2.40 2.75
Ireland 1.83 1.90 2.20 2.50 2.85
Slovakia 2.03 2.05 2.35 2.65 3.00
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 4.74 4.50 4.41 4.48 4.34
Hungary 7.39 7.30 7.20 6.90 6.50
Bulgaria 1.90 2.10 2.40 2.70 3.05
Poland 6.84 6.80 7.30 7.20 6.00
Romania 7.77 7.30 7.40 7.50 7.60
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 2.01 1.95 2.10 2.25 2.50
Sweden 1.96 2.05 2.35 2.65 2.95
Norway 3.00 3.10 3.40 3.70 4.00
Switzerland 0.99 1.05 1.35 1.65 1.95
Emerging
markets
China 2.83 2.97 3.15 3.35 3.35
India 7.45 7.65 8.00 8.35 8.35
South Africa 10.06 10.35 10.60 10.85 10.75
Russia 10.23 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 21.73 25.00 23.00 23.00 26.00
Brazil 12.55 12.75 13.00 13.25 13.25
Other advanced economies United States 3.10 3.25 3.50 3.75 3.75
Japan  0.26 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Australia 3.54 3.65 3.90 4.15 4.15
New Zealand 3.81 4.00 4.25 4.50 4.50
Canada 3.09 3.20 3.45 3.70 3.70

Exchange rates (end of period)

  6/5/2022 Q2 2022 Q3 2022 Q4 2022 Q1 2023
USD per EUR 1.06 1.05 1.07 1.10 1.11
CZK per EUR 24.92 24.50 24.20 24.10 23.90
HUF per EUR 382.14 370.00 357.00 355.00 355.00
PLN per EUR 4.70 4.75 4.70 4.65 4.60
BGN per EUR 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
RON per EUR 4.95 4.95 4.95 4.95 4.95
GBP per EUR 0.86 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.88
SEK per EUR 10.47 10.50 10.50 10.40 10.30
NOK per EUR 9.98 9.75 9.60 9.50 9.50
CHF per EUR 1.04 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.08
BRL per USD 5.03 5.05 5.05 5.05 5.05
INR per USD 76.91 76.90 76.90 76.90 76.90
ZAR per USD 15.91 16.00 16.00 16.00 15.95
RUB per USD 65.70 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
TRY per USD 14.94 14.50 15.00 15.00 15.50
RMB per USD 6.67 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.70
JPY per USD 130.23 132.00 133.00 134.00 135.00
USD per AUD 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.75
USD per NZD 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71
CAD per USD 1.29 1.28 1.26 1.25 1.24

Other forecasts and updates

Belgium

Ireland

Central and Eastern Europe