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Most recent Economic Perspectives publication

Economic Perspectives January 2025

Economic forecasts January 2025


 

Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)

Inflation (period average, in %)
    2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026
Euro area Euro area 0.7 0.7 1.0 2.4 2.6 2.3
Germany -0.2 0.3 0.9 2.5 3.0 2.6
France 1.1 0.6 1.0 2.4 2.0 2.1
Italy 0.5 0.4 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.0
Spain 3.1 2.0 1.8 2.8 2.3 2.2
Netherlands 0.9 1.4 1.0 3.3 2.5 2.4
Belgium 1.0 0.6 0.9 4.3 2.8 2.2
Ireland 0.3 4.2 4.5 1.3 1.7 2.0
Slovakia 2.2 2.0 2.6 3.1 4.4 2.6
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 1.0 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.5 2.4
Hungary 0.4 2.1 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.6
Bulgaria 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.1 3.2
Poland 2.7 3.1 3.2 3.7 4.1 2.7
Romania 1.1 2.5 2.9 5.6 4.3 3.6
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.5 2.6 2.3
Sweden 0.6 1.8 2.8 2.9 1.0 1.8
Norway 0.9 1.5 1.0 3.2 2.5 2.3
Switzerland 1.4 1.3 1.9 1.1 0.6 1.0
Emerging 
markets		 China 4.8 4.5 3.8 0.2 0.7 1.7
India* 6.2 6.5 6.5 4.8 4.4 4.6
South Africa 0.5 1.6 1.7 4.4 4.4 4.5
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 2.9 2.6 4.0 58.5 31.8 17.2
Brazil 3.5 2.2 2.1 4.4 4.2 3.5
Other advanced economies United States 2.8 1.9 1.8 2.9 2.7 3.1
Japan  -0.2 1.2 0.6 2.6 2.3 2.1
Australia 1.2 2.1 2.4 3.4 2.8 2.7
New Zealand 0.2 1.9 2.6 3.1 2.1 2.0
Canada 1.2 1.7 2.0 2.4 2.0 2.1
* fiscal year from April-March         10/1/2025

Policy rates (end of period, in %)
    10/1/2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
Euro area Euro area (refi rate) 3.15 2.65 2.15 2.15 2.15
Euro area (depo rate) 3.00 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 4.00 3.75 3.50 3.50 3.50
Hungary (base rate) 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.00 5.75
Bulgaria -        
Poland 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.50 4.75
Romania 6.50 6.50 6.25 6.00 5.75
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 4.75 4.50 4.25 4.00 4.00
Sweden 2.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Norway 4.50 4.25 4.00 3.75 3.75
Switzerland 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Emerging markets China (7d rev.repo) 1.50 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20
India 6.50 6.25 5.75 5.75 5.75
South Africa 7.75 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.25
Russia Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 47.50 42.50 35.00 30.00 30.00
Brazil 12.25 14.25 15.00 15.00 15.00
Other advanced
economies		 United States (mid-target range) 4.375 4.375 4.125 3.875 3.625
Japan  0.25 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75
Australia 4.35 4.10 3.85 3.85 3.85
New Zealand 4.25 3.75 3.25 3.25 3.25
Canada 3.25 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.75

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)
    10/1/2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
Euro area  Germany 2.56 2.45 2.45 2.45 2.50
France 3.42 3.25 3.25 3.24 3.27
Italy 3.74 3.55 3.55 3.53 3.56
Spain 3.25 3.15 3.15 3.14 3.18
Netherlands 2.80 2.65 2.65 2.65 2.70
Belgium 3.20 3.05 3.05 3.04 3.08
Ireland 2.84 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.80
Slovakia 3.43 3.35 3.35 3.35 3.40
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 4.14 4.20 4.20 4.20 4.20
Hungary 6.90 6.75 6.50 6.30 6.10
Bulgaria* 3.85 3.85 3.85 3.80 3.80
Poland 6.05 5.80 5.70 5.10 4.80
Romania 7.65 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.55
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 4.84 4.75 4.75 4.75 4.80
Sweden 2.41 2.30 2.30 2.30 2.35
Norway 3.97 3.90 3.90 3.90 3.95
Switzerland 0.42 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.35
Emerging
markets		 China 1.63 1.60 1.60 1.50 1.50
India 6.77 6.70 6.70 6.60 6.60
South Africa 9.17 9.10 9.10 9.00 9.00
Russia 15.13 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
Turkey 26.45 26.00 24.00 24.00 22.50
Brazil 14.75 14.60 14.60 14.50 14.50
Other advanced economies United States 4.70 4.60 4.60 4.50 4.50
Japan  1.20 1.20 1.30 1.30 1.30
Australia 4.55 4.45 4.45 4.35 4.35
New Zealand 4.68 4.60 4.60 4.50 4.50
Canada 3.35 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25
*Caution: very illiquid market

Exchange rates (end of period)
  10/1/2025 Q1 2025 Q2 2025 Q3 2025 Q4 2025
USD per EUR 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04
CZK per EUR 25.10 25.30 25.20 25.10 25.10
HUF per EUR 413.44 404.00 406.00 408.00 413.00
PLN per EUR 4.26 4.30 4.26 4.25 4.25
BGN per EUR 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
RON per EUR 4.97 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
GBP per EUR 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.87
SEK per EUR 11.48 11.50 11.50 11.50 11.50
NOK per EUR 11.77 11.75 11.75 11.75 11.75
CHF per EUR 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93
BRL per USD 6.04 6.10 6.10 6.10 6.10
INR per USD 85.92 86.00 86.25 86.50 86.75
ZAR per USD 18.95 19.00 19.00 19.00 19.00
RUB per USD 101.50 Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty
TRY per USD 35.42 37.10 38.94 40.48 42.00
RMB per USD 7.33 7.34 7.36 7.40 7.40
JPY per USD 158.11 160.00 160.00 160.00 160.00
USD per AUD 0.62 0.61 0.60 0.60 0.60
USD per NZD 0.56 0.55 0.54 0.54 0.54
CAD per USD 1.44 1.45 1.46 1.46 1.46

Other forecasts and updates

Belgium

Central and Eastern Europe