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Economic forecasts May 2022
Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %) |
Inflation (period average, in %) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Euro area | 5.4 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 7.3 | 4.0 |
| Germany | 2.9 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 7.4 | 4.2 | |
| France | 7.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 3.8 | |
| Italy | 6.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 7.2 | 3.9 | |
| Spain | 5.1 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 9.2 | 4.4 | |
| Netherlands | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 2.8 | 10.5 | 3.8 | |
| Belgium | 6.2 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 3.2 | 8.3 | 3.0 | |
| Ireland | 13.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 7.0 | 4.0 | |
| Slovakia | 3.0 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 8.5 | 7.6 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 3.3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 10.1 | 4.5 |
| Hungary | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 4.8 | |
| Bulgaria | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 12.5 | 6.5 | |
| Poland | 5.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 11.9 | 8.0 | |
| Romania | 5.9 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 11.0 | 8.0 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 7.5 | 4.5 |
| Sweden | 4.6 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 2.5 | |
| Norway | 4.2 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 2.1 | |
| Switzerland | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 0.9 | |
| Emerging markets |
China | 8.1 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 2.5 |
| India* | 8.8 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 4.3 | |
| South Africa | 4.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 4.3 | |
| Russia | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | ||||||
| Turkey | 11.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 19.6 | 60.0 | 23.7 | |
| Brazil | 4.6 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 8.7 | 10.1 | 5.1 | |
| Other advanced economies | United States | 5.7 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 |
| Japan | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 1.0 | |
| Australia | 4.7 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 2.8 | |
| New Zealand | 5.0 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 2.8 | |
| Canada | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 2.5 | |
| * fiscal year from April-March | 6/05/2022 | ||||||
Policy rates (end of period, in %) |
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| 6/5/2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Euro area (refi rate) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Euro area (depo rate) | -0.50 | -0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 5.75 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| Hungary (BUBOR 3M) | 6.79 | 7.15 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.20 | |
| Bulgaria | - | |||||
| Poland | 5.25 | 6.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.50 | |
| Romania | 3.00 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.75 |
| Sweden | 0.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.50 | |
| Norway | 0.75 | 1.00 | 1.50 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| Switzerland | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | -0.75 | |
| Emerging markets | China | 2.85 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 |
| India | 4.40 | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.65 | |
| South Africa | 4.25 | 4.75 | 5.25 | 5.75 | 6.00 | |
| Russia | 20.00 | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | ||||
| Turkey | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | 14.00 | |
| Brazil | 12.75 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 13.50 | 13.50 | |
| Other advanced economies |
United States (mid-target range) | 0.88 | 1.38 | 2.38 | 2.88 | 3.13 |
| Japan | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | |
| Australia | 0.35 | 0.75 | 1.75 | 2.75 | 3.00 | |
| New Zealand | 1.50 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 4.00 | |
| Canada | 1.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.25 | |
10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %) |
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| 6/5/2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Germany | 1.15 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.80 | 2.10 |
| France | 1.68 | 1.80 | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.75 | |
| Italy | 3.15 | 3.20 | 3.75 | 4.30 | 4.85 | |
| Spain | 2.25 | 2.30 | 2.60 | 2.90 | 3.25 | |
| Netherlands | 1.43 | 1.55 | 1.85 | 2.15 | 2.50 | |
| Belgium | 1.73 | 1.80 | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.75 | |
| Ireland | 1.83 | 1.90 | 2.20 | 2.50 | 2.85 | |
| Slovakia | 2.03 | 2.05 | 2.35 | 2.65 | 3.00 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 4.74 | 4.50 | 4.41 | 4.48 | 4.34 |
| Hungary | 7.39 | 7.30 | 7.20 | 6.90 | 6.50 | |
| Bulgaria | 1.90 | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.70 | 3.05 | |
| Poland | 6.84 | 6.80 | 7.30 | 7.20 | 6.00 | |
| Romania | 7.77 | 7.30 | 7.40 | 7.50 | 7.60 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 2.01 | 1.95 | 2.10 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| Sweden | 1.96 | 2.05 | 2.35 | 2.65 | 2.95 | |
| Norway | 3.00 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 4.00 | |
| Switzerland | 0.99 | 1.05 | 1.35 | 1.65 | 1.95 | |
| Emerging markets |
China | 2.83 | 2.97 | 3.15 | 3.35 | 3.35 |
| India | 7.45 | 7.65 | 8.00 | 8.35 | 8.35 | |
| South Africa | 10.06 | 10.35 | 10.60 | 10.85 | 10.75 | |
| Russia | 10.23 | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | ||||
| Turkey | 21.73 | 25.00 | 23.00 | 23.00 | 26.00 | |
| Brazil | 12.55 | 12.75 | 13.00 | 13.25 | 13.25 | |
| Other advanced economies | United States | 3.10 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Japan | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | |
| Australia | 3.54 | 3.65 | 3.90 | 4.15 | 4.15 | |
| New Zealand | 3.81 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Canada | 3.09 | 3.20 | 3.45 | 3.70 | 3.70 | |
Exchange rates (end of period) |
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| 6/5/2022 | Q2 2022 | Q3 2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | |
| USD per EUR | 1.06 | 1.05 | 1.07 | 1.10 | 1.11 |
| CZK per EUR | 24.92 | 24.50 | 24.20 | 24.10 | 23.90 |
| HUF per EUR | 382.14 | 370.00 | 357.00 | 355.00 | 355.00 |
| PLN per EUR | 4.70 | 4.75 | 4.70 | 4.65 | 4.60 |
| BGN per EUR | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| RON per EUR | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.95 |
| GBP per EUR | 0.86 | 0.85 | 0.86 | 0.87 | 0.88 |
| SEK per EUR | 10.47 | 10.50 | 10.50 | 10.40 | 10.30 |
| NOK per EUR | 9.98 | 9.75 | 9.60 | 9.50 | 9.50 |
| CHF per EUR | 1.04 | 1.04 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| BRL per USD | 5.03 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 | 5.05 |
| INR per USD | 76.91 | 76.90 | 76.90 | 76.90 | 76.90 |
| ZAR per USD | 15.91 | 16.00 | 16.00 | 16.00 | 15.95 |
| RUB per USD | 65.70 | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | |||
| TRY per USD | 14.94 | 14.50 | 15.00 | 15.00 | 15.50 |
| RMB per USD | 6.67 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.70 |
| JPY per USD | 130.23 | 132.00 | 133.00 | 134.00 | 135.00 |
| USD per AUD | 0.71 | 0.72 | 0.72 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| USD per NZD | 0.64 | 0.65 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| CAD per USD | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.25 | 1.24 |
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