World

World

Economic update - June 2021

Economic Perspectives June 2021

Economic forecasts


 

Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %)

Inflation (period average, in %)

    2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022
Euro area Euro area -6.7 4.1 4.4 0.2 1.8 1.4
Germany -5.1 3.0 4.1 0.3 2.3 1.7
France -8.0 5.1 4.3 0.5 1.3 1.2
Italy -8.9 4.0 4.3 -0.2 1.0 1.0
Spain -10.8 4.9 5.8 -0.3 1.2 1.2
Netherlands -3.7 2.4 3.4 1.1 1.9 1.4
Belgium -6.3 5.3 4.1 0.4 1.8 1.5
Ireland 3.4 5.0 4.0 -0.5 1.5 2.0
Slovakia -4.8 4.0 4.5 2.0 1.5 2.0
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic -5.6 3.5 4.5 3.3 2.5 2.2
Hungary -5.1 6.7 5.1 3.4 4.2 3.4
Bulgaria -3.8 4.0 4.0 1.2 2.1 2.3
Poland -2.7 5.2 4.9 3.6 4.2 2.7
Romania -3.7 6.5 5.5 2.3 3.8 3.5
Rest of Europe United Kingdom -9.8 6.4 5.4 0.9 2.0 2.0
Sweden -2.9 3.4 3.5 0.7 1.6 1.5
Norway -3.1 3.7 3.1 1.2 2.7 1.8
Switzerland -2.7 3.3 2.9 -0.9 0.3 0.5
Emerging 
markets
China 2.3 8.3 5.4 2.5 1.4 2.4
India* -7.3 10.0 6.6 6.2 4.9 4.8
South Africa -7.0 4.8 2.0 3.0 4.1 4.2
Russia -3.0 3.5 2.3 3.4 5.5 4.2
Turkey 1.8 5.7 3.8 12.3 16.0 12.0
Brazil -4.1 4.7 2.2 3.3 6.6 4.3
Other advanced economies United States -3.5 6.5 4.0 1.2 3.2 2.3
Japan  -4.7 2.8 2.6 -0.1 0.0 0.5
Australia -2.4 4.4 3.2 0.9 1.8 1.7
New Zealand -1.2 4.0 3.3 1.7 1.8 1.6
Canada -5.3 6.1 4.0 0.6 2.3 2.1
* fiscal year from April-March         11/06/2021

Policy rates (end of period, in %)

    11/6/2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
Euro area Euro area (refi rate) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Euro area (depo rate) -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.75 1.00
Hungary 0.93 0.90 1.05 1.20 1.20
Bulgaria -        
Poland 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.25
Romania 1.25 1.25 1.50 1.50 1.75
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Sweden 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Norway 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.25
Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75
Emerging markets China 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95
India 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
South Africa 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.75
Russia 5.50 5.50 6.00 6.00 6.00
Turkey 19.00 19.00 18.00 16.00 15.00
Brazil 3.50 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.75
Other advanced
economies
United States (mid-target range) 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
Japan  -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
Australia 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
New Zealand 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Canada 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)

    11/6/2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
Euro area  Germany -0.27 -0.15 0.15 0.15 0.20
France 0.10 0.10 0.40 0.40 0.45
Italy 0.75 0.95 1.25 1.25 1.40
Spain 0.36 0.50 0.80 0.80 0.85
Netherlands -0.12 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.35
Belgium 0.07 0.10 0.40 0.40 0.45
Ireland 0.14 0.15 0.45 0.45 0.50
Slovakia -0.06 0.05 0.35 0.35 0.40
Central and
Eastern Europe
Czech Republic 1.72 1.80 1.92 2.10 2.16
Hungary 2.76 2.70 2.60 2.70 2.75
Bulgaria 0.22 0.20 0.50 0.50 0.55
Poland 1.74 1.90 2.00 2.20 2.35
Romania 3.37 3.38 3.38 3.39 3.40
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 0.72 0.85 1.20 1.25 1.40
Sweden 0.31 0.45 0.75 0.75 0.80
Norway 1.46 1.60 1.90 1.90 1.95
Switzerland -0.24 -0.15 0.15 0.15 0.20
Emerging
markets
China 3.13 3.15 3.35 3.60 3.65
India 6.01 6.20 6.55 6.85 6.90
South Africa 8.66 8.85 9.15 9.40 9.45
Russia 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.50 6.40
Turkey 17.36 17.50 17.00 15.50 15.00
Brazil 9.20 9.20 9.40 9.65 9.70
Other advanced economies United States 1.47 1.60 1.90 2.15 2.20
Japan  0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Australia 1.46 1.60 1.90 2.15 2.20
New Zealand 1.67 1.80 2.10 2.35 2.40
Canada 1.39 1.55 1.85 2.10 2.15

Exchange rates (end of period)

  11/6/2021 Q2 2021 Q3 2021 Q4 2021 Q1 2022
USD per EUR 1.21 1.20 1.23 1.26 1.30
CZK per EUR 25.34 25.35 25.10 24.90 24.70
HUF per EUR 347.83 350.00 352.00 355.00 357.00
PLN per EUR 4.48 4.45 4.42 4.40 4.40
BGN per EUR 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
RON per EUR 4.91 4.91 4.91 4.92 4.92
GBP per EUR 0.86 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.87
SEK per EUR 10.07 10.05 10.05 10.00 10.00
NOK per EUR 10.10 10.05 10.00 9.90 9.80
CHF per EUR 1.09 1.10 1.12 1.14 1.15
BRL per USD 5.12 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
INR per USD 73.17 73.00 72.95 72.90 72.80
ZAR per USD 13.68 13.50 13.50 13.50 13.50
RUB per USD 71.90 72.00 71.00 70.00 70.00
TRY per USD 8.34 8.60 8.90 9.00 9.10
RMB per USD 6.40 6.38 6.35 6.30 6.25
JPY per USD 109.75 109.00 109.00 109.00 109.00
USD per AUD 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.80
USD per NZD 0.71 0.72 0.73 0.74 0.75
CAD per USD 1.21 1.21 1.20 1.19 1.18

Other forecasts and updates

Belgium

Ireland

Central and Eastern Europe

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