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Economic update - August 2020

Economic Perspectives July-August 2020

Economic forecasts


 

Real GDP growth (period average, in %)

Inflation (period average, in %)
    2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
Euro area Euro area 1.2 -8.3 5.2 1.2 0.7 1.5
Germany 0.5 -6.1 5.2 1.4 0.7 1.9
France 1.2 -10.5 6.4 1.3 0.6 1.5
Italy 0.1 -10.7 4.1 0.6 0.4 1.1
Spain 2.0 -12.7 7.2 0.8 0.2 0.5
Netherlands 1.7 -6.5 3.7 2.7 1.5 1.7
Belgium 1.4 -9.0 5.1 1.2 0.7 1.7
Ireland 5.6 -5.0 4.0 0.9 -0.5 1.5
Slovakia 2.4 -8.0 6.1 2.8 1.8 1.0
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 2.5 -7.0 4.7 2.6 2.9 1.3
Hungary 4.9 -6.2 5.0 3.4 3.2 3.4
Bulgaria 3.4 -8.0 5.0 2.4 0.5 2.2
Poland 4.2 -3.0 4.8 2.1 3.3 2.7
Romania 4.1 -7.0 6.0 3.9 2.7 3.3
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 1.4 -9.0 6.0 1.8 -0.5 2.5
Sweden 1.2 -4.7 3.1 1.8 0.4 1.3
Norway 2.3 -4.5 4.0 2.2 1.0 2.2
Switzerland 1.0 -5.9 4.6 0.4 -0.7 0.2
Emerging 
markets		 China 6.1 1.8 8.1 2.9 2.5 2.4
India* 4.7 -1.4 8.0 4.8 3.4 3.8
South Africa 0.2 -7.5 3.8 4.1 3.0 4.2
Russia 1.3 -5.5 2.9 4.2 3.1 3.5
Turkey 0.9 -6.5 4.7 13.9 10.5 10.0
Brazil 1.1 -8.1 5.4 3.7 2.3 3.4
Other advanced economies United States 2.2 -5.5 4.5 1.9 0.7 1.9
Japan  0.7 -5.1 2.5 0.5 0.3 1.0
Australia 1.8 -3.8 3.1 1.6 0.6 1.6
New Zealand 2.3 -6.0 5.3 1.6 1.5 1.6
Canada 1.7 -6.5 5.2 1.9 0.6 1.7
* fiscal year from April-March         06/08/2020

Policy rates (end of period, in %)
    6/8/2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Euro area Euro area (refi rate) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Euro area (depo rate) -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Hungary 0.60 0.60 0.45 0.45 0.45
Bulgaria - - - - -
Poland 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Romania 1.50 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10
Sweden 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Norway 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Switzerland -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75 -0.75
Emerging markets China 2.95 2.85 2.85 2.85 2.85
India 4.00 3.75 3.75 3.75 3.75
South Africa 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50
Russia 4.25 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00
Turkey 8.25 8.00 7.50 7.50 7.50
Brazil 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
Other advanced
economies		 United States (upper limit) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Japan  -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10
Australia 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
New Zealand 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Canada 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25

10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %)
    6/8/2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
Euro area  Germany -0.54 -0.40 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30
France -0.23 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
Italy 1.01 1.10 1.20 1.20 1.20
Spain 0.28 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.40
Netherlands -0.41 -0.25 -0.15 -0.15 -0.15
Belgium -0.25 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ireland -0.15 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.25
Slovakia -0.19 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.10
Central and
Eastern Europe		 Czech Republic 0.82 0.86 0.95 1.08 1.13
Hungary 2.07 2.10 2.00 2.00 2.00
Bulgaria 0.45 0.50 0.60 0.60 0.60
Poland 1.29 1.30 1.40 1.60 1.70
Romania 3.85 4.90 5.00 5.10 5.10
Rest of Europe United Kingdom 0.11 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.40
Sweden -0.09 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.15
Norway 0.58 0.70 0.80 0.80 0.80
Switzerland -0.53 -0.40 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30
Emerging
markets		 China 2.98 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80
India 5.86 6.00 6.00 5.90 5.85
South Africa 9.31 9.20 9.10 9.10 9.10
Russia 5.93 5.80 5.80 5.70 5.50
Turkey 13.80 11.70 11.50 11.50 11.00
Brazil 6.48 6.60 6.60 6.60 6.60
Other advanced economies United States 0.52 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80
Japan  0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Australia 0.83 1.05 1.05 1.05 1.05
New Zealand 0.81 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00
Canada 0.47 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75

Exchange rates (end of period)
  6/8/2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020 Q1 2021 Q2 2021
USD per EUR 1.18 1.17 1.17 1.17 1.17
CZK per EUR 26.19 26.60 26.50 26.00 25.90
HUF per EUR 346.05 345.00 350.00 350.00 352.00
PLN per EUR 4.41 4.47 4.40 4.40 4.37
BGN per EUR 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96 1.96
RON per EUR 4.83 4.84 4.84 4.85 4.85
GBP per EUR 0.90 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.91
SEK per EUR 10.32 10.20 10.15 1.10 10.00
NOK per EUR 10.65 10.60 10.60 10.40 10.40
CHF per EUR 1.08 1.07 1.07 1.08 1.08
BRL per USD 5.29 5.15 5.00 5.00 5.00
INR per USD 74.95 75.00 75.00 74.00 74.00
ZAR per USD 17.59 16.50 16.50 16.50 16.50
RUB per USD 73.47 70.00 70.00 69.00 68.00
TRY per USD 7.27 6.90 7.10 7.20 7.30
RMB per USD 6.95 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
JPY per USD 105.53 106.00 106.00 106.00 106.00
USD per AUD 0.72 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.70
USD per NZD 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.67
CAD per USD 1.33 1.34 1.34 1.32 1.32

Other forecasts and updates

Belgium

Ireland

Central and Eastern Europe
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