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Economic forecasts March 2023
Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %) |
Inflation (period average, in %) |
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| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | ||
| Euro area | Euro area | 3.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 |
| Germany | 1.9 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.7 | |
| France | 2.6 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | |
| Italy | 3.8 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 2.2 | |
| Spain | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 3.2 | |
| Netherlands | 4.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 3.6 | |
| Belgium | 3.1 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 2.8 | |
| Ireland | 12.2 | 5.3 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | |
| Slovakia | 1.7 | 0.9 | 2.8 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 9.2 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 2.4 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 14.8 | 10.9 | 2.4 |
| Hungary | 4.6 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 15.3 | 18.0 | 5.0 | |
| Bulgaria | 3.4 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | |
| Poland | 5.2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 13.2 | 10.8 | 3.5 | |
| Romania | 4.4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 7.0 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 4.0 | -0.8 | 0.7 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 |
| Sweden | 2.7 | -0.7 | 1.4 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 2.4 | |
| Norway | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 6.2 | 4.3 | 2.0 | |
| Switzerland | 2.1 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | |
| Emerging markets |
China | 3.0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| India* | 6.8 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 5.0 | 4.2 | |
| South Africa | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | |
| Russia | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | ||||||
| Turkey | 5.6 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 72.3 | 42.5 | 26.4 | |
| Brazil | 2.9 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 4.3 | |
| Other advanced economies | United States | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 2.2 |
| Japan | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | |
| Australia | 3.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | |
| New Zealand | 2.8 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.6 | |
| Canada | 3.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | |
| * fiscal year from April-March | 14/03/2023 | ||||||
Policy rates (end of period, in %) |
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| 14/3/2023 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Euro area (refi rate) | 3.50* | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.25 |
| Euro area (depo rate) | 3.00* | 3.00 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| Hungary (BUBOR 3M) | 16.30 | 16.30 | 14.00 | 12.00 | 10.50 | |
| Bulgaria | - | |||||
| Poland | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | |
| Romania | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.25 | 7.25 | 7.00 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Sweden | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | |
| Norway | 2.75 | 3.25 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | |
| Switzerland | 0.50 | 1.25 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | |
| Emerging markets | China | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.65 | 2.65 | 2.65 |
| India | 6.50 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | |
| South Africa | 7.25 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | |
| Russia | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | |||||
| Turkey | 8.50 | 9.00 | 9.00 | 25.00 | 25.00 | |
| Brazil | 13.75 | 13.75 | 13.50 | 13.00 | 12.50 | |
| Other advanced economies |
United States (mid-target range) | 4.625 | 4.875 | 5.125 | 5.125 | 5.125 |
| Japan | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | |
| Australia | 3.60 | 3.60 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
| New Zealand | 4.75 | 4.75 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 5.50 | |
| Canada | 4.50 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| * Effective from 22 March 2023 (ECB decision of 16/03/2023) | ||||||
10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %) |
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| 14/3/2023 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Germany | 2.42 | 2.65 | 2.90 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| France | 2.94 | 3.30 | 3.55 | 3.90 | 3.95 | |
| Italy | 4.26 | 4.55 | 5.00 | 5.50 | 5.70 | |
| Spain | 3.48 | 3.65 | 4.05 | 4.40 | 4.40 | |
| Netherlands | 2.78 | 3.05 | 3.30 | 3.65 | 3.65 | |
| Belgium | 3.12 | 3.30 | 3.55 | 3.90 | 3.95 | |
| Ireland | 2.89 | 3.15 | 3.55 | 4.00 | 4.05 | |
| Slovakia | 3.59 | 3.55 | 3.80 | 4.15 | 4.20 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 4.69 | 4.65 | 4.63 | 4.59 | 4.53 |
| Hungary | 8.81 | 8.90 | 8.40 | 7.80 | 7.30 | |
| Bulgaria* | 4.70 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.30 | 5.30 | |
| Poland | 6.20 | 6.40 | 6.00 | 5.80 | 5.50 | |
| Romania | 7.52 | 8.50 | 9.00 | 9.10 | 9.20 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 3.49 | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.45 | 4.45 |
| Sweden | 2.31 | 2.80 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 3.25 | |
| Norway | 3.06 | 3.50 | 4.00 | 3.95 | 3.95 | |
| Switzerland | 1.23 | 1.75 | 2.25 | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Emerging markets |
China | 2.89 | 3.00 | 3.35 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| India | 7.38 | 7.73 | 7.93 | 7.88 | 7.83 | |
| South Africa | 10.03 | 10.08 | 10.28 | 10.23 | 10.18 | |
| Russia | 10.99 | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | ||||
| Turkey | 10.99 | 10.00 | 12.00 | 25.00 | 18.00 | |
| Brazil | 12.94 | 13.60 | 13.80 | 13.75 | 13.70 | |
| Other advanced economies | United States | 3.63 | 3.90 | 4.10 | 4.05 | 4.00 |
| Japan | 0.33 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.75 | 0.75 | |
| Australia | 3.45 | 3.80 | 4.15 | 4.10 | 4.05 | |
| New Zealand | 4.29 | 4.60 | 4.95 | 4.90 | 4.85 | |
| Canada | 2.84 | 3.40 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 3.65 | |
| *Caution: very illiquid market | ||||||
Exchange rates (end of period) |
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| 14/3/2023 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | Q4 2023 | |
| USD per EUR | 1.07 | 1.05 | 1.06 | 1.08 | 1.09 |
| CZK per EUR | 23.75 | 23.75 | 23.90 | 24.50 | 24.50 |
| HUF per EUR | 389 | 385 | 380 | 385 | 390 |
| PLN per EUR | 4.69 | 4.73 | 4.70 | 4.65 | 4.63 |
| BGN per EUR | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| RON per EUR | 4.92 | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.95 |
| GBP per EUR | 0.88 | 0.90 | 0.92 | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| SEK per EUR | 11.23 | 11.35 | 11.00 | 10.90 | 10.85 |
| NOK per EUR | 11.28 | 11.25 | 11.00 | 10.75 | 10.70 |
| CHF per EUR | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 1.00 | 1.02 |
| BRL per USD | 5.23 | 5.28 | 5.26 | 5.21 | 5.19 |
| INR per USD | 82.23 | 83.17 | 82.78 | 82.02 | 81.64 |
| ZAR per USD | 18.12 | 18.27 | 18.19 | 18.02 | 17.94 |
| RUB per USD | 75.14 | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | |||
| TRY per USD | 18.97 | 19.00 | 20.00 | 21.68 | 22.00 |
| RMB per USD | 6.87 | 6.99 | 7.06 | 6.99 | 6.92 |
| JPY per USD | 134.34 | 135.00 | 133.00 | 130.00 | 125.00 |
| USD per AUD | 0.67 | 0.66 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.65 |
| USD per NZD | 0.62 | 0.61 | 0.61 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| CAD per USD | 1.37 | 1.40 | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.35 |
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