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Economic forecasts November 2022
Real GDP growth (period average, annual figures based on quarterly figures, in %) |
Inflation (period average, in %) |
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| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Euro area | 5.3 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 8.5 | 6.1 |
| Germany | 2.6 | 1.7 | -0.2 | 3.2 | 8.8 | 6.1 | |
| France | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 6.0 | 5.0 | |
| Italy | 6.7 | 3.7 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 8.8 | 3.6 | |
| Spain | 5.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 8.6 | 5.3 | |
| Netherlands | 4.9 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 12.3 | 5.8 | |
| Belgium | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 10.9 | 6.2 | |
| Ireland | 13.5 | 12.1 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 8.1 | 5.3 | |
| Slovakia | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 11.5 | 13.0 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 3.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 3.6 | 14.5 | 7.5 |
| Hungary | 7.1 | 5.5 | 0.0 | 5.2 | 14.0 | 14.3 | |
| Bulgaria | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 2.9 | 13.5 | 10.5 | |
| Poland | 5.8 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 13.1 | 10.5 | |
| Romania | 5.9 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 12.0 | 9.0 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 7.5 | 4.1 | -0.3 | 2.9 | 8.9 | 6.4 |
| Sweden | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.2 | 2.7 | 8.0 | 6.1 | |
| Norway | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.7 | |
| Switzerland | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 3.0 | 2.3 | |
| Emerging markets |
China | 8.1 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| India* | 8.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 4.2 | |
| South Africa | 4.9 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 5.2 | |
| Russia | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | ||||||
| Turkey | 11.4 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 19.6 | 72.3 | 39.7 | |
| Brazil | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 4.4 | |
| Other advanced economies | United States | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 4.0 |
| Japan | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.5 | -0.2 | 2.2 | 1.6 | |
| Australia | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 4.5 | |
| New Zealand | 4.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | |
| Canada | 4.5 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | |
| * fiscal year from April-March | 4/11/2022 | ||||||
Policy rates (end of period, in %) |
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| 4/11/2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Euro area (refi rate) | 2.00 | 2.50 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 |
| Euro area (depo rate) | 1.50 | 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 6.75 |
| Hungary (BUBOR 3M) | 16.56 | 14.50 | 13.50 | 13.00 | 10.80 | |
| Bulgaria | - | |||||
| Poland | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.50 | |
| Romania | 6.25 | 6.75 | 7.00 | 7.00 | 7.25 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 3.00 | 3.50 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Sweden | 1.75 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Norway | 2.25 | 2.75 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.25 | |
| Switzerland | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
| Emerging markets | China | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.65 |
| India | 5.90 | 6.40 | 6.75 | 6.75 | 6.75 | |
| South Africa | 6.25 | 7.00 | 7.50 | 7.50 | 7.50 | |
| Russia | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | |||||
| Turkey | 10.50 | 10.50 | 10.50 | 10.50 | 30.00 | |
| Brazil | 13.75 | 13.75 | 13.75 | 13.75 | 13.50 | |
| Other advanced economies |
United States (mid-target range) | 3.88 | 4.38 | 5.13 | 5.38 | 5.38 |
| Japan | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | -0.10 | |
| Australia | 2.85 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | |
| New Zealand | 3.50 | 4.00 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | |
| Canada | 3.75 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | |
10 year government bond yields (end of period, in %) |
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| 4/11/2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | ||
| Euro area | Germany | 2.26 | 2.50 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 3.50 |
| France | 2.81 | 3.10 | 3.95 | 4.15 | 4.20 | |
| Italy | 4.42 | 5.25 | 6.30 | 6.50 | 6.75 | |
| Spain | 3.33 | 3.60 | 4.45 | 4.65 | 4.70 | |
| Netherlands | 2.55 | 2.85 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 3.95 | |
| Belgium | 2.86 | 3.10 | 3.95 | 4.15 | 4.20 | |
| Ireland | 2.77 | 3.20 | 4.05 | 4.25 | 4.30 | |
| Slovakia | 3.72 | 3.25 | 4.10 | 4.30 | 4.30 | |
| Central and Eastern Europe |
Czech Republic | 5.91 | 5.08 | 4.93 | 4.81 | 4.70 |
| Hungary | 10.60 | 9.50 | 8.50 | 7.50 | 7.00 | |
| Bulgaria | 6.20 | 3.40 | 4.25 | 4.45 | 4.50 | |
| Poland | 8.22 | 8.30 | 7.40 | 6.50 | 6.00 | |
| Romania | 9.28 | 9.20 | 9.30 | 9.40 | 9.50 | |
| Rest of Europe | United Kingdom | 3.55 | 3.75 | 4.55 | 4.75 | 4.75 |
| Sweden | 2.15 | 2.50 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | |
| Norway | 3.47 | 3.75 | 4.55 | 4.75 | 4.75 | |
| Switzerland | 1.15 | 1.45 | 2.25 | 2.45 | 2.45 | |
| Emerging markets |
China | 2.71 | 3.10 | 3.65 | 4.05 | 4.15 |
| India | 7.47 | 8.00 | 8.50 | 8.75 | 8.75 | |
| South Africa | 10.62 | 11.20 | 11.70 | 11.95 | 11.95 | |
| Russia | 9.93 | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | ||||
| Turkey | 11.33 | 12.00 | 13.00 | 14.00 | 20.00 | |
| Brazil | 11.86 | 12.20 | 12.70 | 12.95 | 12.95 | |
| Other advanced economies | United States | 4.13 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 5.25 | 5.25 |
| Japan | 0.26 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | |
| Australia | 3.85 | 4.25 | 4.75 | 5.00 | 5.00 | |
| New Zealand | 4.57 | 4.90 | 5.40 | 5.65 | 5.65 | |
| Canada | 3.46 | 3.65 | 4.15 | 4.40 | 4.40 | |
Exchange rates (end of period) |
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| 4/11/2022 | Q4 2022 | Q1 2023 | Q2 2023 | Q3 2023 | |
| USD per EUR | 0.99 | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.98 | 1.00 |
| CZK per EUR | 24.40 | 24.70 | 25.50 | 25.40 | 25.40 |
| HUF per EUR | 402.06 | 395.00 | 385.00 | 380.00 | 380.00 |
| PLN per EUR | 4.69 | 4.75 | 4.70 | 4.70 | 4.65 |
| BGN per EUR | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 | 1.96 |
| RON per EUR | 4.89 | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.95 | 4.95 |
| GBP per EUR | 0.88 | 0.89 | 0.90 | 0.91 | 0.92 |
| SEK per EUR | 10.85 | 10.90 | 10.90 | 10.75 | 10.50 |
| NOK per EUR | 10.17 | 10.40 | 10.40 | 10.25 | 10.10 |
| CHF per EUR | 0.99 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 | 0.98 |
| BRL per USD | 5.03 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.10 | 5.10 |
| INR per USD | 82.05 | 82.50 | 82.50 | 82.00 | 81.75 |
| ZAR per USD | 17.98 | 18.00 | 18.00 | 17.75 | 17.50 |
| RUB per USD | 61.20 | Temporarily no forecast due to extreme uncertainty | |||
| TRY per USD | 18.61 | 19.00 | 22.00 | 24.00 | 22.00 |
| RMB per USD | 7.18 | 7.15 | 7.15 | 7.10 | 7.10 |
| JPY per USD | 146.84 | 150.00 | 152.00 | 150.00 | 148.00 |
| USD per AUD | 0.65 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.66 | 0.67 |
| USD per NZD | 0.59 | 0.57 | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.61 |
| CAD per USD | 1.35 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.30 |
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